What's Going to Happen in the Middle East?

The Middle East has for centuries been a challenge for outsiders. The West has repeatedly tried to intervene to force “solutions” on that area. The Romans. The Crusades. The British. The USA. From where I sit, it seems to me that there is only one country that ever brought some semblance of peace to the region, and that is Turkey in the form of its Ottoman Empire. Yes, the same Turkey that today is the world’s 17^th largest economy and which is predicted to be the 12^th largest in 5 years (Canada is currently number 10 and is predicted to slip to 17^th in 5 years). The same Turkey that is reported to have had 1.4 million people in its armed forces and 400,000 in its reserves in 2010. I suspect that these numbers are smaller now, but either way, Turkey is “a force to be reckoned with.” Why does Turkey need such a huge military? The Ottoman Empire only ended about 100 years ago. I suspect we may see it again. The only countries in the Middle East that could put up much resistance are Israel, Iran, and Egypt. Israel, of course, would resist to the point where an outside invader would probably go down with it, so Israel would likely not be a target.

Speaking of Israel, there is huge economic co-operation between India and Israel.  As retired Ambassador Yoram Ettinger reported: “Israel-India commercial, defense, intelligence and counter-terrorism cooperation is second only to Israel-US. Israel is involved in 80% of the irrigation-solution market in India - which is expected to reach a value of $4BN in four years - as represented by the India-Israel multi-national corporation Na'an Dan Jain, which is active in 100 countries, considering Africa a top target. Israel and India collaborate in the area of agricultural development with India providing the production resources, while Israel generates the knowhow. According to Index Mundi, the economic profile of India includes an impressive annual economic growth of 7% during 1997-2016, a 5% unemployment, a 5.2% inflation and an $8.7 trillion GDP.”

Israel has a bright future methinks. Turkey also. Saudi Arabia not so much. I think the royal family stands a good chance of being toppled. I don’t trust the stability of that country in the absence of the House of Saud.