USA-Poland vs. Germany?

There is a big conflict now between Poland and the EU, or we may as well say between Poland and Germany. The Polish government was elected by a big majority, and it has the opinion that national sovereignty is paramount to Poland. The EU opinion is that national sovereignties are subservient to the EU. Perhaps that is the same as saying that national sovereignties are subservient to Germany. The broad issue is whether a country such as Poland is a nation, or a state within a nation. The narrow issue is over Moslem immigration. Poland doesn’t want any. The Poles have an old well-established society and they feel that they don’t want it being modified by outsiders, and Moslems would tend to modify the Polish culture. They simply would not fit in. So Poland says No to Moslem immigration. Germany, which has accepted over a million in the last couple of years, says that is unacceptable.

It appears that there will be a showdown. The EU does not feel it can back off from its insistence that Poland conform. Or Hungary for that matter. Hungary has a similar stand to Poland’s. Poland is determined not to back down either.  So what can the EU do? They could lock Poland out of the free trade zone, but that would damage Germany who is really dependent on exports (see http://gordonfeil.blogspot.ca/2017/07/russia-germany-and-rest-of-europe-whats.html). The EU could perhaps restrict the Polish right to vote on certain matters, but that would probably seem like bullying.

Add to this the USA factor. The USA sees Poland as a valued ally. Poland is a buffer against Russia. Poland is very distrustful of Russia and now also has the conflict with Germany. The USA’s relationship with Germany has deteriorated. Frankly, I think Merkel disdains Trump. Maybe not….she never calls me to discuss it, so who am I to say so? But we see Poland and the USA both anti-Russia and both have problems with Germany.  I expect Poland to be related to further deterioration in the American-German relationship.