I have little doubt that President Trump intends to “drain
the swamp”….to make a positive difference. But he is going to find it really
hard to do.
His first problem is the lack of money. With U.S. public
debt at 106% of GDP (compared to 33% when Reagan took office), Trump does not
have room to fund his plans via debt. Reagan was also going to drain the swamp,
but he failed even though he had a lot more wiggle room economically. Moreover, the swamp is much more full now
than it was in the 1980s.
He wants to build his Mexican Wall, the military, public
infrastructure, and spend money on border protection and veterans benefits. Not
much room to borrow that money. Yes, borrow….he says he’s cutting taxes, doesn’t
he?
His second problem is that his economic plans do not promote
prosperity. He seems opposed to free market principles. For example, he has
announced that BMWs imported from Mexico will be levied a 35% tariff. What
happened to NAFTA? BMW has pointed out
that their largest plant in the world is in South Carolina. So they hold a few
cards of their own.
He also is escalating conflict with China. His recognition
of Taiwan, while reasonable, will cause a problem with a country that is
already tense over the nearby USA military presence.
Third, he has the establishment against him. Some of those
people are very powerful. And some of them are dangerous. They started by
fanning the Russian election interference story so as to invalidate his
presidency.
In short, I will not be surprised to see the Trump
administration crash and burn. I hope not, because I think the USA needs a
disruptive president rather than a business as usual one. But I think the swamp is about to get a whole
lot deeper.
Mr. Trump needs to drain his own swamp before he gets started on the one in Washington. He has refused to: release his income tax returns (something that ALL of his predecessors did), take the necessary steps to ensure that there will be no conflicts of interest (divest/place assets in a blind trust), be more circumspect and professional with his public statements, support an independent and bipartisan inquiry into Russian interference in the recent election, submit to regular access/questioning by the news media, etc. It's hard for some of us to take seriously a crusade to drain the swamp which is led by a man so mired in his own muck!
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