Why I Think Trump Will Win

I know that the election polls in the USA show Biden/Harris as the clear favorites over Trump/Pence, but I think they are skewed in several ways. Where to begin…. Well, the first problem is that the polls do not distinguish between likely voters and those who are not likely to vote. If the questions included “Did you vote in the last election?” and “How about the election before that?” and “How confident are you that you will vote this time?” there would be a way to poll likely voters only. Who cares what the voting intentions of non-voters are? Yet, the polls reflect the sentiments and sympathies of people that won’t vote. In a country where voter turn-out is low, the skewing of such methodology is hugely significant. The slant most likely favors the Democrats. In modern western democracies, what are now called progressives tend to be more creative than conservatives, and conservatives tend to be more conscientious than progressives. In the USA, the progressives are more likely to support Biden as the conservatives support Trump. Trump’s supporters --- the conscientious folks --- are more likely to cast their ballots.

Another problem is that the Democrats have a lot of wasted support. Many of the blue states have way more supporters than are needed to win the state. These extra, wasted votes are counted in the support percentages reported from the polls.

I am pretty sure that the campaign managers do not interpret polls the same way the public does. What do Biden and Trump read from the polls? I notice Biden has spent a lot of time in states that are supposedly Democrat shoe-ins. What for? Why not put all his time into the swing states? What does he know that we don’t know? I also notice that Trump seems relaxed and confident. Why? I suspect the political leaders seem more support for Trump than the polls suggest.

I am not expecting Trump to win resoundingly. I think it will be close. And I think it unlikely we will know who the winner is for a long time afterwards. The mail-in vote is too significant to allow a clear victory before those votes are counted. The states do not have uniform rules about the mail-in ballots. Some states require the ballot to be mailed before the election. Some require it to be received before the election polls close. Some say that if you vote and then die before the election, your vote doesn’t count. Other states don’t care. Both sides are reported to have retained hundreds of lawyers to challenge the ballots. I can see them clogging the courts as they argue ballot by ballot over alleged irregularities.

The election may be the event that syncs the stock market with the economy. The stock market has been soaring while the economy is tanking. The divergence is largely explained by (1) the six largest stocks of the S&P 500 having well over a third of its value and driving the statistic higher, and (2) the huge increase in the money supply from the wide distribution of free cash: there is simply more cash to bid up stock prices. If Trump wins, expect extended riots in the streets of America. The stock market will probably not react well. If Biden wins, the prospect of his 39.6% tax on capital gains will likely trigger selling as people lock in the tax on the gains at 20% or less. So I think there will be trouble in equity accounts arising from this election.