Tuesday 12 June 2018

Austria, Turkey, and What Else is Happening


Maybe it’s my imagination, but the world seems to be erupting here and there with stresses in places that I have for awhile in this blog been citing as potential trouble.  Austria is saying enough is enough in reference to what it calls “political islam” and is ejecting several dozen Turkish imams whom Austria sees as instrumental in fomenting fear and hatred within the parallel society these Islamic clerics have helped create within Austria. Turkey’s president Erdoğan is spouting retaliatory talk. I have high confidence in the Moslem issue becoming an increasingly incendiary force in Europe. The Moslem birthrate is high, the native European birthrate is very low. At the current rate of demographic change, France will be a Moslem republic in 30 years.

Further, the economy of Europe has been stagnating for at least 10 years. It’s going to get worse. And Moslems tend to use a seriously disproportionate share of welfare services and funding in Europe. This is part of the growing resentment. The baby boomers are retiring, and they are a bulge in Europe’s population pyramid. Unlike the USA, Europe has no bulge for gen-Y. Canada doesn’t either…..except for Alberta. Any society with a baby boomer bulge and no millennial bulge in its population pyramid can expect to see economic stresses as fewer and fewer workers are required to produce enough to support more and more old dependants ---- dependants who are converting their equity investments into cash for consumption, further strangling the economy, or dependants who have no equity and need maintenance by the state.

China and Japan are in that same boat. Unless we have significant advances in A.I. and robotics soon, so that many services required by dependants can be reliably and economically performed by robots, things look bleak for most of the developed world.  

I expect Latin America, with its high birth rate, low median age, and increasing opportunities for higher education, will do relatively well in the next couple of decades.

1 comment :

  1. What makes Europe powerless before Islamic immigration is humanism. A core axiom of secularism is that all old and big religions are great and all "great" religions are fundamentally peaceful and all believers are equivalent as long as they don't really believe. As a result, European states are unable to tailor immigration to reflect their traditional christian identity and culture. From a Christian perspective, none of this is surprising: The long term consequence of the collective apostasy of European elites will ultimately result in the extermination of the Christian Civilization.

    ReplyDelete