What is Putin's Aim?

 

Russia has its ups and downs. It has been invaded at least four dozen times, and the invasions have typically come through nine gaps in the terrain on the edges of Russia. If the world was a peaceful place, the lack of Russian control of the gaps might not concern Putin. Russia has typically not known peace with the rest of the world during my lifetime. I think back, for example, to that period of 1995 to 1998. The Soviet Union had collapsed and so had the Russian economy. The ruble should have been devalued, but the IMF exerted pressure on Russia to maintain the ruble’s value, thereby choking its economy (Russian products were priced too high for export, while imports took the place of domestic consumption of Russian made goods). The poverty level went from 2% to 40% and the average life expectancy of the Russian male went from 78 years to 55 years. It is tempting to think that such was the crucible in which Putin’s ambitions were formed. I suspect he wants to make sure that the world can never dictate to Russia again. One way to do that is to plug those gaps. The biggest is the European Plain which is about 3000 kilometers wide in western Russia, but narrows in the north to about 250 kilometers just east of Warsaw, and in the south sees its narrowing where Moldova meets Romania. Bucharest sits in the middle of the southwestern opening to the gap. I think Putin’s aim is to take Ukraine so that he has easy access to Warsaw and Bucharest. Plug those gaps.

Taking Ukraine also removes an unfriendly border much further west. As it stands, Ukraine is less than 500 kilometers from Moscow. One can see why Russia does not want NATO forces on Ukrainian territory.

The implication of the foregoing is that Ukraine is a stepping stone and that eventually, Russia will kinetically clash with NATO countries. Poland was the line in the sand in advance of World War II. It seems it may be again. It is very important for the West to bog Russia down in the Ukraine so that invasion of Poland and Romania becomes impractical.

Hence the West sends weapons to Ukraine.  But there are problems with doing so. I see this Reuters report on Russia last week destroying a large cache of weapons from the west stored in Odessa: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-says-it-destroyed-odesa-terminal-where-foreign-weapons-were-stored-2022-04-23/.

Even when weapons are supplied, making them effective is a major challenge. What if they are destroyed in storage? What if logistics are such that the weapons don’t make it to the battlefields in time? What if the weapons arrive, but the troops do not know how to use them?  What if the troops know how to use them, but have taken so many casualties by the time the weapons arrive that there is not enough manpower to deploy the weapons effectively? Each of these problems can be magnified by Russian intervention. 

It is hard to see the war ending soon. A problem is that the longer the war drags on, the more it appears, particularly to Russia’s population, that Russia is losing. Putin cannot afford to lose. If he thinks he is losing, will he withdraw with his tail between his legs, or will he choose the nuclear option? But if he wins in Ukraine, he will likely continue into NATO lands, which also could easily lead to nuclear weapons usage.

In the meantime, Russia grows richer. Think of it: when Russia is earning billions of dollars monthly for its oil and gas exports, but not spending anything on imports, its monetary reserves are going to rise quickly. This enables Russia to afford war.

China is quietly becoming increasingly sympathetic towards Russia. Soon it may seem like Russia and China against the world. “Just you and me, Babe.” They have similar views on how to control their populaces. They are both ruthless in dealing with peoples they are oppressing. They have similar demographic collapses. They share a 4300 kilometer border. I am reminded of the prophecy of Daniel 11, where in verse 44 we find that “news out of the east and out of the north” leads to a great war that is elsewhere called Armageddon. To the east and to the north of the near east, which is the geographical focal point of the Bible, are China and Russia. Just saying…...