What is Putin's Aim?

 

Russia has its ups and downs. It has been invaded at least four dozen times, and the invasions have typically come through nine gaps in the terrain on the edges of Russia. If the world was a peaceful place, the lack of Russian control of the gaps might not concern Putin. Russia has typically not known peace with the rest of the world during my lifetime. I think back, for example, to that period of 1995 to 1998. The Soviet Union had collapsed and so had the Russian economy. The ruble should have been devalued, but the IMF exerted pressure on Russia to maintain the ruble’s value, thereby choking its economy (Russian products were priced too high for export, while imports took the place of domestic consumption of Russian made goods). The poverty level went from 2% to 40% and the average life expectancy of the Russian male went from 78 years to 55 years. It is tempting to think that such was the crucible in which Putin’s ambitions were formed. I suspect he wants to make sure that the world can never dictate to Russia again. One way to do that is to plug those gaps. The biggest is the European Plain which is about 3000 kilometers wide in western Russia, but narrows in the north to about 250 kilometers just east of Warsaw, and in the south sees its narrowing where Moldova meets Romania. Bucharest sits in the middle of the southwestern opening to the gap. I think Putin’s aim is to take Ukraine so that he has easy access to Warsaw and Bucharest. Plug those gaps.

Taking Ukraine also removes an unfriendly border much further west. As it stands, Ukraine is less than 500 kilometers from Moscow. One can see why Russia does not want NATO forces on Ukrainian territory.

The implication of the foregoing is that Ukraine is a stepping stone and that eventually, Russia will kinetically clash with NATO countries. Poland was the line in the sand in advance of World War II. It seems it may be again. It is very important for the West to bog Russia down in the Ukraine so that invasion of Poland and Romania becomes impractical.

Hence the West sends weapons to Ukraine.  But there are problems with doing so. I see this Reuters report on Russia last week destroying a large cache of weapons from the west stored in Odessa: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-says-it-destroyed-odesa-terminal-where-foreign-weapons-were-stored-2022-04-23/.

Even when weapons are supplied, making them effective is a major challenge. What if they are destroyed in storage? What if logistics are such that the weapons don’t make it to the battlefields in time? What if the weapons arrive, but the troops do not know how to use them?  What if the troops know how to use them, but have taken so many casualties by the time the weapons arrive that there is not enough manpower to deploy the weapons effectively? Each of these problems can be magnified by Russian intervention. 

It is hard to see the war ending soon. A problem is that the longer the war drags on, the more it appears, particularly to Russia’s population, that Russia is losing. Putin cannot afford to lose. If he thinks he is losing, will he withdraw with his tail between his legs, or will he choose the nuclear option? But if he wins in Ukraine, he will likely continue into NATO lands, which also could easily lead to nuclear weapons usage.

In the meantime, Russia grows richer. Think of it: when Russia is earning billions of dollars monthly for its oil and gas exports, but not spending anything on imports, its monetary reserves are going to rise quickly. This enables Russia to afford war.

China is quietly becoming increasingly sympathetic towards Russia. Soon it may seem like Russia and China against the world. “Just you and me, Babe.” They have similar views on how to control their populaces. They are both ruthless in dealing with peoples they are oppressing. They have similar demographic collapses. They share a 4300 kilometer border. I am reminded of the prophecy of Daniel 11, where in verse 44 we find that “news out of the east and out of the north” leads to a great war that is elsewhere called Armageddon. To the east and to the north of the near east, which is the geographical focal point of the Bible, are China and Russia. Just saying…...

Slavery In the World Today

 

I was just watching a video about the history of slavery and myths about it, presented by a black academic at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NO_wmixXBdE. As she points out, slavery still exists. I think you would be hard pressed to find a Muslim country anywhere that does not have slaves. That was one of the main points made years ago by the movie Slave Trade in the World Today. But the worst offenders are not Muslim. According to a modern documentary found at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d2FSPdgEguk, there are 45 million slaves today, the largest slaveholder being the government of North Korea. China has over 3 million slaves according to this report, but India is reported to have over 18 million slaves. There are charities that aim to lift people out of slavery, and they are not all as tainted as the one run by the Kielburgers. Consider helping out one of them.

Poilievre the liberal versus the corruption of the Left

 

Here is an article that popped up on my Google feed: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/04/14/pierre-poilievre-canada-conservative-leader-campaign/ 

I was surprised to see that someone with The Washington Post would be interested enough in the backwater of Canadian politics to empty his spleen over Pierre Poilievre, who might become PM if first he can win his party’s leadership race. I see that the author finds Pierre to be “particularly infuriating and reckless.” Apparently Poilievre’s offense is that he “is a market fundamentalist…He believes government is the problem….”  Well, isn’t it? Nope…..at least according to author David Moscrop who states that “we need long-term state solutions.”  I don’t know who “we” is, but I am not one of them.

Here is what the state has done for Victoria. We have here in the Capital Regional District a population of somewhere around 425k. So far in April (and we are only halfway through), we have seen the likely permanent closure of three walk-in clinics due to a chronic shortage of physicians. It seems that physicians are not motivated to work when the state has dictated that they shall be paid only $31 per visit for attendance upon patients. From these fees, a physician must pay overhead, typically running at around $7000 to $8000 or more per month.  

Look what’s happening in the residential rental market. Landlords found out that the government can unilaterally place a moratorium on rents when doing so might buy votes. This means that landlords now have to bake into their rents the risk that they may not be paid. So now landlords find ways of substantially increasing rents. Of course, many will likely choose to not be landlords and endeavor to repurpose the rental properties they own. Consequently, now we see, in this city and many others, rents that most wage earners cannot afford. Thank you, State.

The problem is with the Left, who presumptuously and erroneously chose to refer to themselves as progressive. My observation is that left leaning leaders and activists tend to think they know how to run your life better than you do. They want power. They want to overpower you into doing things the way they think they should be done. Effectively, they are bullies. They also tend to buy people’s votes with their own money and with money from whomever they can coerce it. The Austrian School economists --- people such as von Hayek, von Mises, and Rothbard --- and writers such as Hazlitt, saw and explained that the economy is the production and distribution of goods and services triggered by needs expressed by individuals who best know their own circumstances and aspirations. The price system, working in the context of property rights and voluntary exchanges, signals who needs what and how badly they need it. When government meddles in the economy, false price signals are sent, and production fails to respond to needs. So far as I can tell, Pierre Poilievre realizes this important truth and wants to enable people to take charge of their lives. At least he says he does, and I hope we give him the chance to prove it.

Liberalism is about freedom. Oxford sees it as “a political and social philosophy that promotes individual rights, civil liberties, democracy, and free enterprise.” The Liberal Party of Canada has long ago ceased being liberal as it races down the dark road to ethical bankruptcy and corruption of totalitarianism. Poilievre is the real liberal here.