War With China?

Major wars are usually not started from a plan. They tend to happen rather accidentally through escalation of conflicts.  They are usually related to someone wanting what someone else has.

Potential for an accidental major war lies in the South China Sea. This sea has trillions of dollars worth of oil and gas and lucrative fishing grounds. China wants it. All of it.  The Chinese have long been treating that sea as a Chinese lake, claiming all area there except water very close to other nations: Brunei, Malaysia, Philippines, and Vietnam. China has even built artificial islands in the sea upon which they have erected military facilities.

China imports resources from Africa and the Middle East through the Malacca strait. That strait connects the Indian Ocean to the South China Sea and through this passage is shipped three times the amount of oil that passes through the Suez Canal. The Chinese are disconcerted over USA war games in the strait to practice blocking it.

There have been shoving matches between China and other nations bordering the sea. Trump is waffling on the American one China policy.  At http://gordon-feil-history-observations.blogspot.ca/2017/01/filling-swamp.html I discussed the President’s promise to recognize Taiwan as a nation in its own right, but last month he told Chinese leader Xi Jinping that he is maintaining the one China policy. This, of course, does not get him points with China. He may have given in on this issue in hope that China would give in on another one, but to China he just looks like a bluffer now. He looks weak. If he gives in on that, then he will on other issues also.

Trump doesn’t want to appear as a paper tiger. He doesn’t want to lose face. He might just have to show the Chinese and thing or two.

I think that the situation in the South China Sea is a precarious one, and in such circumstances, accidents can happen.