The Market Won't Know What Hit It

 Governments are fond of referring to their dumping of cash into the economy as stimulus. There has been a huge amount of cash released into people’s bank accounts, and very little economic growth. How little? About 22 cents of GDP for each dollar of “stimulus” --- showing that governments have depleted their tools. They don’t know what to do. They are now sowing the seeds of a huge price inflation, and they don’t seem to care. Instead, they point to that lack of general price increases during this past year, and they have positioned Japan as the poster child debtor nation.

What appears to have eluded their notice is that the volatility of money is approaching zero --- a symptom of the lack of demand for goods and services. People want to save. Many are afraid to spend. So even though production and productive capacity are shrinking as businesses close down permanently, demand is falling even more, and prices have not escalated to the extent the money supply has. Once people feel confident, they will begin spending. Then see what happens to price levels. So far as Japan being an example, first, the Japanese economy has been stagnating for 30 years. Secondly, they owe that money to themselves, not to foreigners, so their very high debt to GDP ratio is not the problem our lower ratio is.

There is a problem developing. Commercial real estate has high vacancy rates. Many companies have come to see that they don’t really need all that office space. Empty buildings do not have the value of fully occupied ones. Prices of commercial buildings are bound to drop, at least in real terms, if not in nominal terms. I expect many of their owners will be in financial trouble and unable to meet their mortgage payments. This will reduce the value of the mortgages. The difference between the selling price of a mortgage and the contractual cash flow from the mortgage payments determines the effective interest rate. The cheaper a series of payments is to buy, the bigger the spread between cash paid for it and cash to be collected from it, and the higher the effective interest rate.

When mortgages can produce much higher yields than bonds now do, what will happen to bonds? Investors will not be willing to pay as much as they are now. So, bonds should fall in price. Makes sense since the bond market is a bubble waiting for a pin to pop it. I suspect that a deteriorating mortgage market will be the pin. This is a major economic problem. The bond market is much bigger than the stock market, and the value of daily bond trades dwarfs stock trades. Falling bond prices means higher effective interest rates. When interest rates rise, more real estate owners will be caught in a squeeze that will wipe them out and precipitate even greater problems in the mortgage and bond markets. As the value of real estate declines, balance sheets will deteriorate and credit will tighten up.

Of course, central banks may decide to buy the mortgages and bonds, thus monetizing the debt. More inflation. More problems. No, it’s not looking good.

It is time to be liquid (in cash or in investments that can almost instantly be converted into cash). Time to consider Warren Buffett’s expectation of a stock market crash. Stock markets will not take rising interest rates very well. Neither will real estate markets. There could be blood in the streets. It’s time now to mend relationships and build new ones.

The Pleasure of a CRA SRED Audit

 

CRA is doing their SRED audit meetings via telephone now. I have been in a few of them, and here are my observations:

1. Time is saved. People don’t want to be on the phone overly long, and are willing to be more economical in their dialogue than was usual at in-person meetings.

2. People cannot see each other and consequently sometimes start speaking as someone else begins, so listening and waiting can be virtues.

3. The only communication is the words spoken and the tone of voice. No body language. No facial expressions. While a lot of the communication process is missing, there is more focus on the words and voice than there might have been in different circumstances. I suppose it’s similar to a blind person having a heightened sense of hearing.

4. I prefer this new way. I don’t even have to get dressed.

I also like the fact that CRA is in recent times focusing more on the outcome of projects. What I mean is that there is getting to be more acceptance of the fact that developed tools did not fall from the sky. Too often I have seen claims challenged by CRA for want of detailed records of the work done. I have normally pointed out that if a technological or scientific uncertainty existed at the start of a project and if there has been progress at reducing the uncertainty (i.e.: advancement), then the fact of the tool or process or discovery existing is prima facie evidence of the work having been done: who needs records to prove it? Last year the CRL case was heard and the Court came to the same conclusion. The realization seems to be informing CRA’s approach to SRED audits now.

Why I Think Trump Will Win

I know that the election polls in the USA show Biden/Harris as the clear favorites over Trump/Pence, but I think they are skewed in several ways. Where to begin…. Well, the first problem is that the polls do not distinguish between likely voters and those who are not likely to vote. If the questions included “Did you vote in the last election?” and “How about the election before that?” and “How confident are you that you will vote this time?” there would be a way to poll likely voters only. Who cares what the voting intentions of non-voters are? Yet, the polls reflect the sentiments and sympathies of people that won’t vote. In a country where voter turn-out is low, the skewing of such methodology is hugely significant. The slant most likely favors the Democrats. In modern western democracies, what are now called progressives tend to be more creative than conservatives, and conservatives tend to be more conscientious than progressives. In the USA, the progressives are more likely to support Biden as the conservatives support Trump. Trump’s supporters --- the conscientious folks --- are more likely to cast their ballots.

Another problem is that the Democrats have a lot of wasted support. Many of the blue states have way more supporters than are needed to win the state. These extra, wasted votes are counted in the support percentages reported from the polls.

I am pretty sure that the campaign managers do not interpret polls the same way the public does. What do Biden and Trump read from the polls? I notice Biden has spent a lot of time in states that are supposedly Democrat shoe-ins. What for? Why not put all his time into the swing states? What does he know that we don’t know? I also notice that Trump seems relaxed and confident. Why? I suspect the political leaders seem more support for Trump than the polls suggest.

I am not expecting Trump to win resoundingly. I think it will be close. And I think it unlikely we will know who the winner is for a long time afterwards. The mail-in vote is too significant to allow a clear victory before those votes are counted. The states do not have uniform rules about the mail-in ballots. Some states require the ballot to be mailed before the election. Some require it to be received before the election polls close. Some say that if you vote and then die before the election, your vote doesn’t count. Other states don’t care. Both sides are reported to have retained hundreds of lawyers to challenge the ballots. I can see them clogging the courts as they argue ballot by ballot over alleged irregularities.

The election may be the event that syncs the stock market with the economy. The stock market has been soaring while the economy is tanking. The divergence is largely explained by (1) the six largest stocks of the S&P 500 having well over a third of its value and driving the statistic higher, and (2) the huge increase in the money supply from the wide distribution of free cash: there is simply more cash to bid up stock prices. If Trump wins, expect extended riots in the streets of America. The stock market will probably not react well. If Biden wins, the prospect of his 39.6% tax on capital gains will likely trigger selling as people lock in the tax on the gains at 20% or less. So I think there will be trouble in equity accounts arising from this election.