What's Going to Happen in the Middle East?

The Middle East has for centuries been a challenge for outsiders. The West has repeatedly tried to intervene to force “solutions” on that area. The Romans. The Crusades. The British. The USA. From where I sit, it seems to me that there is only one country that ever brought some semblance of peace to the region, and that is Turkey in the form of its Ottoman Empire. Yes, the same Turkey that today is the world’s 17^th largest economy and which is predicted to be the 12^th largest in 5 years (Canada is currently number 10 and is predicted to slip to 17^th in 5 years). The same Turkey that is reported to have had 1.4 million people in its armed forces and 400,000 in its reserves in 2010. I suspect that these numbers are smaller now, but either way, Turkey is “a force to be reckoned with.” Why does Turkey need such a huge military? The Ottoman Empire only ended about 100 years ago. I suspect we may see it again. The only countries in the Middle East that could put up much resistance are Israel, Iran, and Egypt. Israel, of course, would resist to the point where an outside invader would probably go down with it, so Israel would likely not be a target.

Speaking of Israel, there is huge economic co-operation between India and Israel.  As retired Ambassador Yoram Ettinger reported: “Israel-India commercial, defense, intelligence and counter-terrorism cooperation is second only to Israel-US. Israel is involved in 80% of the irrigation-solution market in India - which is expected to reach a value of $4BN in four years - as represented by the India-Israel multi-national corporation Na'an Dan Jain, which is active in 100 countries, considering Africa a top target. Israel and India collaborate in the area of agricultural development with India providing the production resources, while Israel generates the knowhow. According to Index Mundi, the economic profile of India includes an impressive annual economic growth of 7% during 1997-2016, a 5% unemployment, a 5.2% inflation and an $8.7 trillion GDP.”

Israel has a bright future methinks. Turkey also. Saudi Arabia not so much. I think the royal family stands a good chance of being toppled. I don’t trust the stability of that country in the absence of the House of Saud.

A Bit on Bitcoin

A few weeks ago there were predictions that the bitcoin price was headed to $100k, even to a million dollars. Well, an odd thing happened on the way to the moon: the price of bitcoin collapsed by 50% this past month. It is now flirting with closing below its 100 day moving average. Probably not very positive for the bitcoin price.

Also, I see this article: https://www.investopedia.com/news/japans-biggest-bank-releasing-its-own-cryptocurrency-march/ about banks in Japan getting into the crypto currency game with their own. Such regularization and mainstreaming of crypto currencies is almost sure to reduce demand for rogue “currencies” such as bitcoin. Add to that the intense pressure that the IRS has been putting on bitcoin dealers for their client lists, and bitcoin is in trouble methinks. The IRS is like to apply the same pressure that the U.S. Treasury did to UBS and Credit Suisse some years back when they blackmailed those giant Swiss banks into providing client lists (give them up or we are shutting down your mammoth USA operations).

Octopus in the Hotel

We have for some time been patronizing the Best Western hotel chain. Years ago I would frequent the Fairmont and Four Seasons chains and I was also a sucker for any hotel with the word "Grand" in its name. Much like the word "Bistro" in a restaurant name stills grabs my attention. Ultimately I had to admit that while there is great comfort in a Fairmont or Four Seasons, there are other uses for the money. We support a number of young people around the world, trying to create options for them. (Poverty is not so much lack of wealth as it is lack of options.) When the cost of a hotel suite for one night can support a student in a developing country for a few months.....well, it's hard to justify the expense. So I started booking with the Holiday Inn chain, and sometimes various Hilton and Marriott properties. Gradually I drifted towards the Best Western because of its rewards program. Deep discounts and frequent free nights. 

Admittedly, the quality is uneven, and usually we need to eat offsite because we are fussier about our food than the people eating at the restaurants typically attached to a Best Western. That said, I have noticed that in the last few years we are more frequently finding appetizing food at Best Western connected restaurants than we used to. A stellar example is a superb restaurant we found at a Best Western in Dartmouth, Nova Scotia.

I am typing this from a Best Western suite. The hotel is just outside the centre of a major city and this suite with two bedrooms and a large living room and kitchen is costing us only $129 per night including taxes even though online booking sites were asking $244. We only paid for last night. The first two nights of our 3 night stay were free. Great deal in my opinion, but it relates to my diamond status in their rewards program. 

The suite comes complete with a laugh experience. We noticed that one of the bedrooms is a bit warm, and I think we found the source of the heat. 

On the plus side, the internet connection is really good!

Before checking out, I intend to show this pic to the receptionist. I'm curious about the reaction.

Bitcoin Conference Won't Accept Bitcoin as Payment

The subject is from this article: https://news.bitcoin.com/miami-bitcoin-conference-stops-accepting-bitcoin-due-to-fees-and-congestion/, and I think it speaks for itself. When even bitcoin proponents won’t accept it, we have to see that the only thing sustaining that market is the idea that a bigger fool may buy it.